As per the political risk consultant, within the next six months the U.S. and China will likely to reach a trade deal but the tensions between the two largest economies of economies will go on, it will not end soon.
In recent week, tensions between Beijing and Washington have gradually turned more toward technology. As Huawei has been placed on a blacklist by the United States, it restricts American companies from doing trade with the Chinese tech giant earlier this month. Although China is said to be taking into account limiting rare earth exports to U.S. which are materials critical in the manufacturing of things such as electric vehicles and iPhones.
On Wednesday, a former British diplomat and director of Alavan Business Advisory Alastair Newton said, “The technology conflict is not going to stop.” “Technology is where this conflict is going to be fought out, even if we do get a business deal on mutual commodities.”
According to Newton he would not be surprised at all if the Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, Chinese President meeting at the G-20 summit in Japan at the end of June, “shake hands on an outlined contract” that by October might be finalized.
One more prediction is there by an analyst that in June the trade talks may resume at the G-20 meeting, but she was less confident about an agreement.
On Wednesday, J.P. Morgan’s Global Market Strategist, Hannah Anderson said, “I would be looking at the G-20 as a normal venue for both presidents to agree for resuming negotiations, and possibly walk back tensions a little bit, but not as a place for a definite contract,”
Thus, whether there will be an agreement or not, tensions on the business front may not go away. To take the tariff fight the Donald Trump could turn his attention to Europe, predicted by Newton.
